Monday Morning Weather Update Greg Morgan – Chief Meteorologist
A very active weather pattern is evolving for the week ahead. Expect high temperatures in the lower to mid 80’s today through rest of the week. Thunderstorm chances will differ from location to location through the week. Today, the focus will be over the SE New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos and the Mountains. A weak disturbance is noted this morning, undercutting the upper level ridge that is in place over much of the region. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop in close proximity to the mountains this afternoon. Some storms will rumble eastward onto the adjacent Plains. This is where the forecast gets tricky. Copious amounts of moisture are noted over the Pecos River Valley this morning. South winds should continue to transport even more moisture into the region through the day. As thunderstorms fire up over the mountains and move east, it is possible that this moisture could be tapped. Thunderstorms that can blossom in this environment have the potential to produce hail, high winds and heavy rain. A few storms might reach the western Permian Basin. However, the upper ridge that is in place tends to suggest that storms might have a hard time remaining organized long enough for this to occur. Other thunderstorms will develop over the Texas Panhandle and Western Oklahoma. These should grow upscale into a complex of storms that will drop SSE through the overnight hours. The western edge of this thunderstorm complex could clip the eastern row of counties in our area. Tuesday will bring a slightly better chance for thunderstorm development for much of West Texas. Expect a little more instability in the atmosphere Tuesday and Wednesday. This will foster more robust thunderstorm development. Due to the higher instability present, expect stronger storms. High winds, large hail and even a few tornadoes appear possible for some areas on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some of this activity might linger well into Thursday morning. Strong winds appear to be the theme for the late part of the week. Warmer temperatures are in the offering for Friday and Saturday. However, some cooling temperatures are expected Sunday into early next week.